Total polysilicon production schedule increased MoM in July, with polysilicon prices quoted cautiously due to the impact of anti-cut-throat competition [SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Minutes]

SMM reported on July 9:

Silicon Coal

Price: This week, the transaction prices of silicon coal in some regions of the market have declined. In the recent spot coking coal market, influenced by environmental protection checks and the rebound in futures, market expectations for a price increase have risen. Restocking behavior by downstream enterprises and traders has driven down coking coal inventory, leading to a slight increase of 50 yuan/mt in quotes from individual coal mines. However, the current rebound in coking coal remains weak, providing limited cost support for silicon coal and not enough to drive a synchronous increase in silicon coal prices. Moreover, in some regions, producers mainly engaged in silicon coal have seen the center of transaction prices decline due to severe procurement prices from downstream silicon plants. Currently, the average price of non-caking silicon coal in Xinjiang is 710 yuan/mt, the average price of caking silicon coal in Xinjiang is 1,250 yuan/mt, the average price of silicon mixed coal in Gansu is 840 yuan/mt, the average price of granular coal is 960 yuan/mt, the average price of silicon mixed coal in Ningxia is 875 yuan/mt, and the average price of granular coal is 1,040 yuan/mt.

Supply: Due to inventory pressure, some producers are currently focusing on depleting their inventory. Other diversified producers are maintaining their production schedules based on orders.

Demand: Affected by the continuously low operating rate of downstream silicon plants, overall demand remains weak. Additionally, there is a strong sentiment to drive down prices, with only small, rigid-demand restocking orders being maintained.

Silicon Metal

Price: This week, the spot transaction prices of silicon metal have remained basically stable. SMM east China oxygen-blown #553 silicon is priced at 8,700-8,800 yuan/mt. Yesterday afternoon, driven by the polysilicon PV price market, the main silicon metal contract surged to over 8,400 yuan/mt before closing at 8,215 yuan/mt. In the spot market, downstream user orders have decreased, resulting in sluggish transactions.

Production:

In July, silicon metal supply is expected to decrease in the north and increase in the south. The timing for batch resumption of production by large northern producers remains undetermined. In southern Yunnan, entering the rainy season, over 20 furnaces have resumed production, with an expected slight MoM decrease in supply in July. Monitor the production dynamics of large northern producers.

Inventory:

Social Inventory: SMM statistics show that the total social inventory of silicon metal in major regions was 552,000 mt on July 3, an increase of 10,000 mt WoW. Among this, social general warehouses held 126,000 mt, a decrease of 2,000 mt WoW, while social delivery warehouses held 426,000 mt (including unregistered warrants and spot portions), an increase of 12,000 mt WoW. (Excluding Inner Mongolia, Gansu, etc.)

Silicone

Price

DMC: Currently quoted at 10,300-10,600 yuan/mt, domestic DMC prices have remained temporarily stable this week. With the increase in silicon metal prices, cost support has strengthened somewhat, and monomer enterprises' inventory pressure remains manageable.

D4: Currently quoted at 11,100-12,000 yuan/mt, D4 prices have remained stable this week.

107 silicone rubber: Current quotations range from 10,800 yuan/mt to 11,500 yuan/mt. This week, the price of 107 silicone rubber has fallen, and the price spread with DMC has narrowed.

Raw rubber: Current quotations range from 11,800 yuan/mt to 12,200 yuan/mt. This week, the high price of raw rubber has dropped back slightly, and the market transaction price center has moved downward.

Silicone oil: Current quotations range from 12,600 yuan/mt to 13,400 yuan/mt. This week, the transaction price of silicone oil has continued to decline.

Production:

Recently, monomer production has dropped back slightly, and the pressure on the supply side has slightly eased.

Inventory:

This week, monomer enterprise inventory has slightly increased compared to the previous period, and downstream just-in-time procurement volume has decreased.

Polysilicon

Price

Yesterday, the expected price of N-type recharging polysilicon was 37-41 yuan/kg, and the expected quotation of granular polysilicon was 36-37 yuan/kg. With the further clarification of anti-cut-throat competition yesterday, many polysilicon enterprises will subsequently quote prices based on full cost. Most enterprises stopped quoting prices yesterday to conduct internal cost accounting and further industry meetings were held.

Production

The final production schedule for June did not change significantly from previous expectations. In July, several top-tier enterprises increased production, while some second- and third-tier enterprises cut production or halted production. Overall, production increased by approximately 5,000-6,000 mt MoM.

Inventory

There is still significant pressure on polysilicon inventory, with large gaps between enterprises. Due to the recent stagnation in order signing, inventory may rise.

Wafer

Price

The market price of N-type 18X wafers is 0.88 yuan/piece, and the price of N-type 210RN wafers is 1 yuan/piece. The price center of wafers has slightly increased, mainly reflected in the shift of mainstream quotations for 183 wafers to 0.88 yuan/piece and the increase in quotations for 210R wafers to 1 yuan/piece.

Production

It is expected that global wafer production will be around 58GW in June. In July, some enterprises have already made preliminary plans to reduce production schedules.

Inventory

Recently, influenced by the increase in polysilicon quotations, downstream enterprises have accelerated the pace of cargo pick-up, and wafer inventory has decreased.

High-purity quartz sand

Price

Currently, the domestic price of inner-layer sand is 60,000-65,000 yuan/mt, the price of middle-layer sand is 28,000-36,000 yuan/mt, and the price of outer-layer sand is 17,000-22,000 yuan/mt. This week, the price reduction of domestic high-purity sand has accelerated. With the basic conclusion of negotiations for long-term contracts of imported sand, domestic sand prices are under significant pressure. Additionally, the production schedule for wafers in July has declined. To promote orders, sand enterprises have begun to offer discounts and take orders.

Production

This week, the production of quartz sand has decreased compared to last week, and there is an expected surplus in supply.

Inventory

This week, the inventory level of sand enterprises has risen, while the inventory of imported sand has decreased due to just-in-time consumption. The next batch of imported sand is expected to arrive in August.

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